DHL and the New York Staining University College of DHL TRADE Atlas 2025 released today, providing a comprehensive analysis of the most important trends in global trade. In the face of geopolitical tensions and concerns about increases in customs tariffs on a large scale, the report is characterized by data -backed visions, covering nearly 200 countries and region.
He waved on the horizon in the event of uncertainty about future commercial policies after US President Donald Trump was re -elected last year. However, the Atlas of Trade in DHL 2025 highlights how global trade growth has proven amazingly in the face of recent turmoil. This pattern is likely to continue even when the United States begins to increase the customs tariff campaign.
Commercial growth is faster compared to the previous contract
Modern predictions expect that the merchandise trade will grow at an annual rate of 3.1 % from 2024 to 2029. This is almost corresponding to the growth of GDP and represents a modestly faster commercial growth compared to the previous contract. Even if the new American administration is implementing all increases in the proposed tariff and discussing other countries, global trade is still expected to grow during the next five years – but at a much slower pace.
The DHL 2025 Trade Atlas reveals very encouraging visions. There are still great potential for trade growth in advanced and emerging economies worldwide. It is impressive to see how international trade continues to withstand every imagined challenge, from the 2008 financial crisis of Covid-19 to customs tariffs and geopolitical conflicts. In the global business scene, DHL can help customers reassess their supply chains by creating a balanced approach between cost and risk, ensuring efficiency and safe.
Between 2024 and 2029, four countries are expected to be ranked among the 30 best per speed (growth rate) and the volume of (absolute amount) for trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. India also stands out as the country’s third largest amount of expected trade growth (6 percent of additional world trade), behind China (12 %) and the United States (10 %). Countries, which are expected to achieve absolute trade growth throughout Asia, Europe and North America. Meanwhile, countries with the fastest commercial growth include many many in Africa and Latin America.
At the level of the major regions of the world, it is expected that the fastest growth in the volume of trade will be from 2024 to 2029 in South and Central Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and ASEAN-countries with an annual growth rate of 5 % and 6 %. All other regions are expected to grow at 2 percent to 4 percent.
A new record in the long distance trade
Despite the widespread interest in nearby commodities and the production of goods closer to customers, DHL Trade Atlas 2025 shows that trade has not become more regional in general. Actual trade flows indicate the opposite direction. In the first nine months of 2024, the average distance that was passed for all goods circulated was a record of 5,000 km, while the trade share within the main areas decreased to the lowest new level of 51 percent.
Reasons for optimism in the face of American political transformations
DHL Trade Atlas 2025 defines several reasons for optimism about the future of global trade despite the role towards more restricted American trade policies. Most countries continue to pursue trade as a major economic opportunity, and American commercial barriers may enhance relations between other countries. Also, many Trump tariff threats may end differently from the proposal or delay in the original to prevent the rise in local inflation. Moreover, the US share of global imports is currently 13 percent, and its exports are 9 percent – and it is enough for the United States policies to have significant implications for other countries but not enough to determine the future of unilateral global trade.
China -made content finds new ways to the United States
DHL Trade ATLAS 2025 provides an update on the geopolitical transformations that a politician has moved in trade patterns. While trade between the blocs of allies close to the United States and China decreased in 2022 and 2023 for trade within these blocs, those declines were simple and did not last in 2024.
The United States and China reduced its shares from trade with each other, but not enough to form a “meaningful” separation. Direct trade between the United States of China decreased from 3.5 percent of world trade in 2016 to 2.6 % during the first nine months of 2024. However, the United States still brings a share of its imports from China as the rest of the world does. Also, there is evidence that American imports from China are not funded In it. Moreover, the data that is also considered Chinese inputs in the goods that indicate US imports from other countries to any meaningful decrease in dependence on the United States on the goods made in China.
Atlas Trade DHL 2025
DHL Trade Atlas 2025 has a wealth of data dependent and analysis on global trade and its prospects. It is an updated resource for business leaders, policymakers, teachers, students, media, and the interested public. It includes brief profiles from one page that summarizes trade patterns of approximately 200 countries and regions that make up more than 99 % of global trade, gross domestic product and population.
