Air cargo’s seasonally strong fourth quarter (Q4) appears to have peaked, with loads and rates falling slightly in the second full week of December, including from Asia Pacific origins, according to the latest figures and analysis by WorldACD Market Data.
After several weeks of consecutive rise on a weekly basis, average spot prices from Asia-Pacific origins fell by about -4% in week 50 (December 9 to 15), compared to the previous week, to US$4.57 per kilogram. This decline in prices from Asia-Pacific origins was offset by a +6% rise from North America and a +5% increase from Middle East and South Asia (MESA) origins, which together resulted in a 1% global decline in spot rates. . total. However, compared to last year, average global spot prices in week 50 of this year were +16% higher, at $3.20 per kilogram, driven by a +60% year-on-year rise from MESA, an increase of +14%. %. from Asia Pacific, a 13% rise from Europe, and an 8% rebound from North American assets, in addition to slight increases from Africa and Central and South America (CSA).
Average global contract prices also registered a slight decline (-1%) year-on-year, to US$2.61 per kilo, resulting in a similar 1% decline in total worldwide air freight rates to US$2.78 per kilo, based on to the full market average of spot and contract prices – but higher by around +6% y/y. WorldACD’s numbers are now based on more than 500,000 weekly transactions, thanks to the addition of four new air cargo airline entrants to the WorldACD database this month.
Low demand
As air cargo capacity stabilized worldwide during the 50th week, with a -1% decline in global cargo capacity offset by a +1% increase in passenger belly capacity, changes in spot prices broadly reflected changes in demand. Total tonnage worldwide decreased by -1%, with a -2% decrease in tonnage from Asia Pacific and a -7% decrease from MESA origins, offset by a +4% increase in tonnage from Africa and a +2% rise from CSA, Supported by rising seasonal shipments of perishable products heading north from Southern Hemisphere markets – for example, from Egypt to Europe.
Individual markets in the Asia Pacific region
Examining the WoW performance of various key overseas markets in the Asia-Pacific region in week 50, individual spot prices from Asia-Pacific to the USA, and from China to the USA specifically, rose slightly, to $6.94 and $6.98 per kilo. , respectively. Compared to last year, Asia-Pacific to USA spot rates in week 50 rose slightly (+4%), y/y, despite China to USA rates falling by -7% y/y. . Meanwhile, week 50 chargeable weight from Asia Pacific and China to USA decreased by -5% and -4% respectively. But compared to last year, loads from Asia Pacific to the US are up +5%, while shipments from China to the US are only slightly higher (+1%).
From Asia Pacific to Europe, all major origin markets recorded significant tonnage declines in week 50, including year-on-year declines of -10% from Vietnam, -9% from Thailand, -8% from Hong Kong, -6% declines from Both China and Japan, and a -4% drop from South Korea. But compared to last year, trading volumes from most of those markets were still significantly higher in week 50 of this year, including a 26% year-over-year increase from Japan, 23% from China, 19% from Vietnam, and 15% From Vietnam. Hong Kong.
The picture is similar in terms of pricing, including impressive 50-week declines in Europe from Taiwan (-11%), Japan (-7%), and China (-5%), although spot rates from Hong Kong to Europe remain stable. Stable near its 2024 high of $6.21 per kilo. But on a yearly basis, spot rates from all major origin markets to Europe are significantly higher in the 50th week of the year, including a +63% y/y rise from Thailand, a 40% increase from Taiwan, and a 28% increase from Vietnam, +25% of Japan, +16% of South Korea, +13% of China, +7% of Hong Kong.
