Global air freight ended the year with its lowest monthly growth year-on-year, with global tonnages in December being approximately +6% higher than in the last month of 2023, even though they were already at relatively high levels at the time. Average full market prices in December were about 7% higher year-on-year, accounting for half the growth recorded in September, according to the latest figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data. This means that tonnage growth for both November (+8%) and December (+6%) fell into single digits, which may signal the beginning of a new, more moderate growth trend. This comes as no surprise, because Q4 was the first quarter of 2023 showing strong growth, so we are now comparing to a higher base.
Total worldwide air cargo tonnage at the start of 2025 registered just 2% year-on-year growth in the first week (December 30 to January 5), although the comparison with the previous year is less clear due to the seasonal decline at this time of year. In addition to the impact of some severe weather conditions, especially in the United States.
Average global spot rates started the year 22% higher than equivalent levels a year ago, thanks to a 23% year-on-year increase from Asia-Pacific assets and a 59% rise from the Middle East and South Asia (MESA). ) as the relative strength of demand and pricing from these two regions last year looks set to continue into 2025. With global contract rates rising by a more modest +6%, year-over-year, in the first week, total air freight worldwide averaged Rates The year started at US$2.65 per kilo, which is 13% higher than this time last year, based on the full market average of spot and contract prices.
Demand excluding the Asia-Pacific region remains strong, but the growth rate is slowing
Full month data for December indicates that chargeable weight worldwide fell slightly (-3%), compared to peak levels recorded in November, largely due to a decline of -6% m/m in Europe and -2 % decline from Asia-Pacific origins, bringing global tonnages back to near the level between September and October. However, tonnages from Asia-Pacific origins in December were significantly higher than any other month of 2024, with the exception of November – reflecting a significant increase in tonnages from Asia-Pacific origins in the last two months of 2024. In fact, quarterly data indicates Tonnages from Asia-Pacific origins in December 2024 and Asia-Pacific origins remain +6% higher in Q4 2024, compared to Q3, and higher by +11% of their levels in the fourth quarter of 2023.
However, this represents a decline in the pattern of global demand growth year-on-year in the last quarter of 2024: the total global dutiable weight, year-on-year, increased by +12% in the first two quarters of 2024, falling to +11% YoY, in Q3 and +8% YoY in Q4, based on more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD data. These global quarterly YoY increases were largely driven by growth from Asia Pacific assets, which recorded quarterly increases of +20% YoY in Q1, +19% in Q2, and +14% in Q3. , and fell to +11% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. . A similar pattern can be observed for tonnages from MESA assets, which registered +27% (y/y) growth in Q1, and eased to a +7% quarter-on-quarter increase in tonnages in Q4. This decline partly reflects a tougher comparison period in the fourth quarter of 2023, when disruptions to container shipping through the Red Sea had already led to some diversion of sea freight traffic from that region to air freight.
But there were significant quarterly increases in air cargo tonnage over most of the year from all of the world’s major air freight origin regions, which together generated a full global increase in air freight tonnage in 2024 of approximately +11% (+10.8%), according to For preliminary analysis by WorldACD.
Westward transport rates across the Atlantic are rising
On the pricing side, spot and average full-market prices from Asia-Pacific and MESA assets were high through most of 2024, although spot prices from those markets eased slightly in the final weeks of the year – and in December as a whole. On a monthly basis (MoM). But one market that has seen a significant increase in spot rates in the last two months of 2024 is the westbound transatlantic market, where the usual seasonal decline in passenger belly capacity from late October was exacerbated by shifts in freight capacity to Asia-Pacific markets, pushing… Loading factors.
Analysis by WorldACD indicates that spot prices from European origin to North America in December rose almost +50% year-on-year, reaching a peak of US$3.88 per kilo in week 50, before falling to US$2.95 per kilo in the final week. For 2024 – although this price is still high, year-on-year, by +44%.
