President Donald Trump signed The executive order on the first of February Implementing a 10 % tariff and removing eligibility to use the minimum exemption for all Chinese imports of the United States. Four days after temporary Repeat the minimum Chinese imports To allow us to the time of customs protection and border protection to develop sufficient systems to address the sudden rise in official entry imports.
With China, it represents about two -thirds 1.36B De Minimis imports In the United States last year, the sudden shift in the case of millions of daily parcels of this type quickly immersed customs and led to harsh customs congestion and accumulation at American airports. Stopping may also be temporarily as a period of B2C small imports from China, during which Chinese e -commerce platforms convert to their strong dependence on air charges. These platforms have already increased their use to charge the oceans to build stocks in Mexico and the United States and there are reports that for American shoppers, TEMU is already promoting elements of sellers with US -based stockpiles.
The savings and speed provided by the minimum exemption from imports of low value are a major facilitator for the flood of parcels that the United States is mostly entered through this exception by air cargo. E-commerce shipments indicate an estimated 50-60 % of US air cargo sizes Dozens of full shipping every day. Total capacity outside China 25 % increased On an annual basis in 2024, so the closure of the minimum to China is expected to lead to a sharp decrease in sizes and height in the available capacity that can push the transition rates significantly and can put pressure on prices for many other corridors as well as the large capacity It is released again on the market.
With the minimum restriction of China now the prices may not collapse immediately. Prices may remain high until the minimum of the United States is closed again on Chinese imports or can be gradually reduced, but significantly with the conversion of air cargo. Delay Airightos Air Index China – North America’s air freight rates are still unchanging since late January by more than $ 5.00/kg. But with the end of the lunar dayties now, if there is an immediate impact of these recent political changes in the air market and the prices that may only appear in the coming days, such as manufacturing and returning logistics.
The European Union has also been immersed from Chinese imports of low value since 2023, and officials there have increased the scrutiny of TEMU and Shein in recent months due to the increase in unsafe products and illegal goods that enter the European Union in addition to complaints that are not based on these imports. Easy. Last week, the European Commission issued List of proposed procedures In response to this situation, which included removing the minimum exemption. The minimum changes in both the United States and the European Union will have a more deep impact on demand and prices on air cargo.
Returning to the United States, China’s tariff, as well as those that have now been postponed to Mexico and Canada, were punitive in nature, and used as a lever for non -education issues such as smuggling of fentanel and illegal immigration. But the president also progresses with structural definitions aimed at commercial issues. This week, President Trump It was announced by 25 % of the definitions on steel and aluminum imports Starting from March 4 and its intentions to provide mutual definitions and new definitions On computer chips, pharmaceuticals, copper and oil and gas imports, as soon as mid -February.
Suggesting his campaign to obtain introductory introductions by 60 % on all Chinese goods – the process that was placed in the movement by Trump A commercial note the first day It can lead to early work – it is part of this structural tariff strategy. The latest US ocean’s report from the National Federation for sale shows that the start of November is imported in the United States The front loading was shipped before this expected tariffThe projects that this clouds will continue to maintain the highlands to the Q2.
The rates of ocean containers from Asia to Europe continued to slip last week, at a price of $ 3,386/FEU, by 40 % less than January, during the period to LNY. The two trucks in this corridor are likely to be more likely to be pulled out than usual before LNY this year to adapt to red marine transfers. With a few signs of a recovery coming in the demand to disinfect the accumulation of holidays, the demand for mitigation will continue with the entry of this market to the postmodern pregnancy. Transportation companies According to what is stated, it increases the empty sailing On this corridor to prevent prices – already on the ground that was modified in the Red Sea in 2024 – from falling is much further.
Transpacific rates have declined since early January as well, but with expectations that will continue the front loading before the definitions, we may not see a decline in the exemplary demand for the pre -peak season this year. Depending on the strength of continuing to withdraw forward – many trucks who have already been stored since November – prices can remain around their current high levels or climb in the coming weeks as the tariff mode is still uncertain. The force of non -seasonal demand can also lead to unsuccessful demand and weakness of the weakness later this year during the months of the usual peak season.
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