Donald Trump returned to the White House last week and did not take time to a 25 percent threat tariff for imports from Mexico and Canada on February 1. He also ordered an investigation of “trade deficit and unfair commercial practices and to manipulate the alleged currency by other countries”-it is likely to be an indication before the tariff against China.
How does geological policy shift supply chains?
Global supply chains are liquid and constantly evolving threats and opportunities. We have seen this after the escalation of the trade war between the United States of China in 2018 during the first period of Trump as president.
The intensification of the customs tariffs on American imports from China has pushed trucks to consider their options, such as importing goods to the United States via Mexico and Canada.
This contributed to extraordinary growth in the equivalent container sizes in the TEU (20 feet) from China to Mexico – an increase of 76 percent between 2019 and 2024. To Canada, TeU increased by 54 % in the same period.
Geological policy may put barriers to trade, but in the end, the goods will always find their way from one place to another if there is a request to it.
Will the trucks convert supply chains during the next Trump state in the office?
This is the question of millions of dollars.
The fierce growth in the folders in Mexico and Canada may explode if the definitions make it a lower rear door in the United States, but the trucks will not give up this road after spending years to prepare it and invest in infrastructure such as logistics.
In addition, Trump threatened the most severe definitions on China by 60 percent and comprehensive tariffs of 10-20 percent of the rest of the world. If the trucks will convert supply chains to avoid tariffs, this may be a case to determine the least worse option.
It should be noted that it is generally easier to change the destination of the import more than changing the origin of the export. Import to Mexico to the forward to the United States adds the complexity to supply chains, but compared to the disturbances caused by the transfer of exports away from China and dismantling the established manufacturing groups.
However, there have been increasingly exported containers outside India in recent years, most likely at the expense of China, while neighboring Southeast Asian countries are also growing like Vietnam. From both the almost the continent to the American East Coast, sizes of sizes increased by 14.5 percent year on year in 2024.
Companies may look forward to avoiding customs tariffs by charging goods from China to a nation like Vietnam to re -fill/re -compensate before transportation to the United States. If the customs tariff for China increases, it may accelerate this approach.
What are the risks and opportunities for changing world trade patterns?
The evaluation of the risk of supply chain and tender strategies for charging should be a continuous and integrated part of the usual business street of the charger.
Determination of alternatives and emergency plans in force requires a clear understanding of ocean container networks through the commercial corridors they currently use.
Let’s say that you are currently shipping from China to the US East Coast, but you want to understand the implications of transferring some export folders to India. Do you think that the average category prices alone are sufficient to build such a major strategic decision?
XENETA data shows that the average current sites rates from China to the US East Coast are 6446 per FEU (40 feet container). From India to average space prices in the eastern coast $ 4827 per Feu.
In the example below using the actual XENETA data, the charger may choose A transport company A, which provides prices at $ 265, under the average market instead of the BB at a rate of $ 50 above average.
If the charger turns into India to the eastern coast trade of the United States, Carrier A is now the most expensive US $ 2187 above the average market, as the transport company B is now sitting 2648 USD less than average.
Obviously, without this data, the charger will not be able to fully assess the effects of converting folders via these deals – or realize already the commercial opportunity if they cannot determine the appropriate service provider.
The spread of the carrier is just one example on the scale of data that must be taken into account in your charging strategy. This means the use of the XENETA platform to reach long and short charging rates in the short term as well as data on capacity, transportation times, trusted schedule, detention, additional fees and carbon emissions.
What next?
keep calm. It may take years until trade patterns develop with the emergence of different political geographical threats and decline. Within four years, there may be a new White House with a different commercial policy for Trump.
Smart trucks are not awaiting a threat like Trump’s tariff to appear before they jumped to work. They already have a deep understanding of the charging of the ocean containers and a graceful charging strategy that keeps the options open so that they can adapt to these short and long -term geological forces.
